Wednesday, August 23, 2006
Monday, August 14, 2006
What seems remarkable about this situation is how much harm even a foiled plot can cause. Between delays, rescheduled flights, lost productivity among businesspeople flying, lost duty free revenues, and the rest it seems likely to be tens of millions of dollars or more. This as the product of the unsuccessful efforts of a couple dozen people. It highlights the asymmetry between those who can attack anywhere and those who must defend everywhere. I do quite a lot of flying each year (business & leisure withing US, EU, & Pacific rim) and while I agree with temporary security restrictions, it has reached the point where I just don't want to fly any more because of all the hassles.
One could argue that the real terrorists in terms of making people fear flying is the airport security regime. When it comes to flying, I fear inconvenience, lost time, and challenges to my pride more than I fear for my safety from attacks or hijacking. Try explaining to a six-year old why Mommy and Daddy have to take their shoes off but kids don't have to. (Yet.) For me, flying has turned from a luxury into a sometimes necessary evil. Making is a big hassle won't make it more secure. Most of the security is invisible. The best security can't be observed. It's there, you can't anticipate it or plan for it. Having the National Guard seaching bags is theatrics. It makes for good television though.
It's more probable that a jet will crash from mechanical failure than terrorism. Most people don't think about it or worry about it. The world is strange. The airlines layoff thousands of mechanics to save money and are forced to spend more money on security due to terrorism. The wing is falling off, the landing gear is shakey due to fewer mechanics, less repair work done by less people and the airlines are pushing "cheap" flights. Marketing trumps security. The layed off mechanics are applying to work security jobs because that's where the jobs are. In the end everybody is working security as the jets lose millions of dollars (higher fuel prices, etc.) and fall into disrepair. Job security is what most people care about. Our energy security is also threatened due to poor policy. We can blame that on terrorism too. Toss your bottle of hairspray and do your duty. I get the feeling the terrorists have won a few battles because we do as we are told, no matter how little sense it makes.
Your chance of dying in a car wreck is vastly greater than your chance of dying in a terrorist incident. Yet most of us ordinary people leading middle class lives overcome the terror of dying in a car wreck. In fact, most of us don't give it a second thought. I buckle my seatbelt and keep my car in good shape and pay attention to what I'm doing and relax in the knowledge that I've hedged my bets enough to survive another commute. I have no problem being "un-terrorized" while flying. I'm much, much safer once I've actually made it to the airport than I was getting there.
If you look at statistics, your chances of being involved in a terrorists attack are very low. Your chances of hitting a lottery for millions of dollars is greater, much greater. The chances of being killed by terrorists is so low you might as well forget about it. Your chances of something good happening are always much greater than something bad happening, even if you don't waste cash on lottery tickets. That's your business though.
Aren't we lucky that the shoe bomber wasn't an underwear bomber?